New Zealand Grand Prix preview: Liam Lawson against the world

This time last year, Liam Lawson was in a very different predicament. He had wrapped up the 2019 Toyota Racing Series rookie title, and held a 5-point lead to Marcus Armstrong, setting up a home showdown as the two kiwis battled it out over the New Zealand Grand Prix weekend.

Liam Lawson and Marcus Armstrong battle it out during the 2019 New Zealand Grand Prix.

It was a clash for the ages. Armstrong, the Ferrari Academy driver returning home after showing his brilliance in Europe, to claim the title that he had come so close to winning the year before. Lawson, who had just arrived on the scene and followed in Armstrong’s footsteps to take the ADAC Formula 4 vice-championship, was still the rookie.

Armstrong was the professional, his head down. Lawson was the scruffy upstart, pulling daring moves and going toe-to-toe with the series favourite.

This year, Lawson has a different challenge ahead of him. Four drivers are in contention for the 2020 title—five if Lawson fails to finish the first and third races of the weekend. The fiercely competitive international field, perhaps with the added incentive of Super Licence points, has kept all drivers honest throughout the five short weeks of the Castrol Toyota Racing Series.

Igor Fraga takes home the 2020 Denny Hulme Trophy.

Igor Fraga has already proven himself, and now its time to consolidate. The Brazilian has a resume that is longer than most: NACAM Formula 4 vice-champion, third in Formula Renault Eurocup, previous member of the McLaren Shadow F1 eSports team, FIA Gran Turismo Nations Cup and Manufacturer Series champion. He has the second-most race wins in this year’s TRS, and has already booked his seat in FIA Formula 3 with Charouz.

Franco Colapinto in discussion with his m2 engineers.

16 year-old Franco Colapinto is the young-gun, which is certainly saying something in a field of some of the best junior drivers in the world. His mixed results at the start of the season belie a series of tight battles with the front-running pack, and he has been rewarded with a spate of late podiums that kept him in the championship hunt. The 2019 Spanish Formula 4 champion is yet to take a win in this year’s Toyota Racing Series—and the sweetest victory of all would be Sunday’s New Zealand Grand Prix. Even if the TRS title doesn’t fall his way, finishing ahead of Igor Fraga would mark a significant salvo in the Brazilian-Argentinian rivalry.

Yuki Tsunoda and Liam Lawson seemed to be inseparable in 2019. Literally—with the pair of Red Bull Junior drivers tangling in the Euroformula Open in June, or Tsunoda claiming his first victory in FIA Formula 3 while holding off Lawson at Monza. The pair separate this year, with Tsunoda moving to FIA Formula 2, while Lawson will compete for the FIA Formula 3 title with Hitech GP. Tsunoda is already a race-winner in this year’s TRS, but with a (comparatively) lower number of podiums than those above him, he’s been left as the last realistic contender for the title.

Yuki Tsunoda during preparations for the New Zealand Grand Prix.

Theoretically Swiss driver Grégoire Saucy can claim the title, but this requires a DNF from Lawson in both Race 1 and the New Zealand Grand Prix, as well as significant underperformance from his other competitors. Saucy can be proud if he finishes “best of the rest”, and anything above that will be icing on the top.

Either way, these are the drivers that stand in the way of Liam Lawson claiming back-to-back series titles. Lawson’s task is simple, regardless of whether it is a head-to-head battle or a five-way title-fight. He must lead from the front, not allowing anyone to gain an inch on his slim championship lead. Remarkably, his eight-point lead puts him in slightly better stead than where he was last year.

Liam Lawson celebrates winning the 2020 NZ Motor Cup.

Regardless, Red Bull will be watching Lawson’s performance closely. In 2019 he was the rookie, who was able to take it to the most established European competitors through his unique combination of pure skill and the bravery required for daring manoeuvres down the inside. This meant he cast a Verstappen-esque silhouette through the European season, often losing podium positions through over-ambitious clashes with team mates.

Lawson has shown the maturity and skill throughout this year’s Toyota Racing Series to prove that he has ironed out this side of his driving abilities. With potential front-runner status in FIA Formula 3 awaiting him, it’s clear that he understands the significance of what he is racing for, and understands it greater than ever before.