One-stop strategy for Japanese Grand Prix but risk of rain

SUZUKA–A one-stop strategy is expected to be the fastest option for the 2025 Formula One Japanese Grand Prix, but the decision facing teams is complicated by the threat of rain.

A one-stop race beginning on the medium tyre before changing to the hard compound is expected to be fastest, with the soft tyre also an option for the start but requiring a longer stint running towards the end of the race.

"Firstly, it’s worth underlining that all three compounds can have a part to play," said Pirelli director of motorsport Mario Isola.

"The soft, which has even offered a good level of performance beyond one flying lap could on paper be used by those looking to do a one-stop and those opting for a two-stop."

"The data from the weekend has tipped the scales marginally towards a one-stop strategy, with the fastest option being one set of medium and one of hard."

However, the two-stop is also an option, offering teams more flexibility with the threat of light showers in the first hour of the race.

"Simulation suggests the two-stop is not that far off, with all combinations possible, whether using two or all three compounds," said Isola.

"The rain could play an important role, even if it does not fall during the race. In fact, depending on its strength, track conditions could revert to those seen yesterday morning, before the cars had starting running."

"That could make graining more likely and therefore the choice could swing back towards a two-stop. As you can see, there are so many variables in play, ensuring unpredictability and a great show.”

While the rain is expected to be light, there is a thunderstorm warning in place from the Japanese Meteorological Agency, indicating that bursts of up to 15mm of rain could develop throughout the day up to 25mm in a three-hour period.

While the situation is uncertain, the morning at Suzuka has seen light rain but clearing conditions, dampening the threat of grass fires which have so far interrupted running throughout the weekend.

The forecast is nowhere near the heavy rain experienced during the Australian Grand Prix, which tested teams in the first outing of the year and ultimately saw Lando Norris overcome a determined drive from Max Verstappen to take victory.

Verstappen will start on pole in Suzuka with Norris alongside him, with the track likely to be damp and drying, with the threat of further light rain throughout the opening laps.

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